Illinois Governor's Race: 2006

• Democrats

It is no secret that I am supporting Edwin Eisendrath in the March 21'st primary. Governor Blagojevich had a great opprotunity when he was elected; he was to be the anti-corruption governor. But what has happened was several blatant incidents in which he abused his power to reward those who made large campaign contributions. He also has a bad bedside manner; the least he could have done was move to the governor's mansion in Springfield!

So, why do I support Eisendrath? Here is an e-mail message that I sent to friends:

Hi.  I am taking the liberty of writing to you (just
this once, I promise!) on the behalf of Edwin
Eisendrath, who is challenging incumbent Governor Rod
Blagojevich for the Democratic nomination for
Governor.

I am sending this message to you those people who have
progressive political leanings and have voted Democrat
at some time in the past. If you want Governor
Blagojevich to win the nomination, I apologize for
sending you this.

I attended a talk given by Edwin Eisendrath was
impressed at his knowledge, delivery and his rapport
with people.  His topic that day was the funding of
public education in Illinois.

His website: http://www.eisendrath2006.com/

Here is a little bit about him:

He got his undergraduate degree at Harvard, while
taking a year off to work at a school in Appalachia.
He was elected as a Chicago alderman and served for 8
years, including those turbulent years after Mayor
Washington's death.

He then was appointed by President Bill Clinton to
become a Regional Administrator for the Department of
Housing and Urban and Development (HUD).

He then returned to the private sector ten years ago.
At Unext.com, Edwin helped create an online consortium
college with The University of Chicago, Columbia
University, and Stanford University aimed at providing
working adults with access to high quality advanced
degrees.

Later, at Kendall College, he helped relocate and
revive a troubled college.

His "official biography" is here:
http://www.eisendrath2006.com/MeetEdwin/tabid/54/Default.aspx


Why I think supporting him is a good idea:

I think that he has a sufficient combination of
political savy and agency expertise to do a good job.
He is also a progressive Democrat who holds many of
the values that I hold.  One can find a "laundry list"
of issues and his stances on them here:
http://www.eisendrath2006.com/Issues/tabid/91/Default.aspx
(he holds most of the standard progressive views)

And, to be honest, the incumbent is in trouble.
Blagojevich has disappointed many, and it is showing
up in the polls:
In a poll concluded on January 25, Topinka leads
Blagojevich 48-37, Gidwitz is tied with him 40-40, and
he leads Oberweis 43-39.  Given the direction our
national government is taking (especially the Supreme
Court), I'd sure hate to see a GOP takeover.  Source:
http://rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/January%202006/Illinois%20Governor%20January.htm

Though this will be an uphill battle, Eisendrath's
name recognition has improved dramatically over the
past few weeks, and he is up to 18 percent from
virtually zero.  From his blog:

"# Edwin's name recognition is 52 percent �up from
about 18 in November.  That's amazing and entirely due
to the tireless efforts of everyone involved in the
campaign.
# 41 percent of voters believe Rod has broken his
promise to change business as usual in Springfield
# A whopping 48 percent of Democrats do not want Rod
re-elected!
# The horse race nuarens aren't that important this
far out.  Even so, 18% support is pretty good given
how short a time we have been in the race and that
edoesnne doesn't know us yet. We all know that primary
races can change a lot in a short time. "

So, I invite you to check out his website, his
commercials and if you like what you see, sign on to
the campaign by going to the following link:

http://ens.19gi.com/phase2/survey1/survey.htm?CID=lmodsp&ref=53264853&mid=830

Again, this will be the last e-mail message from me on
this matter; I don't want to "spam" anyone.

However, if any of you know things about him that I
might not know (good or bad) please contact me.

Rod Blagojevich
Of course, I don't claim that the current Governor was all bad; that wouldn't be true.
A good defense of him and his record is here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/2/16/195244/886

This link, in part, contains the following:

A new health care program for childrenwas enacted that extended coverage for 250,000 previously uninsured children of working and middle class parents.

To protect patient care and ease the burden on overworked nurses, the state banned mandatory overtime for nurses in the state.

The state raised the minimum wage to $6.50 per hour a few years ago.

Victims of sexual or domestic violence were guaranteed 12 weeks of unpaid leave to recover.

"Sexual orientation" was added to the state civil rights law, protecting gays and lesbians from employment discrimination.

Corporate accountability was increased through a whisteblower law that protects employees from firing or other retaliation if they disclose information to law enforcement agencies about potentially illegal activity by the company.

Limited english speakers were protected in their rights to talk in Spanish or other languages to fellow workers under an amendment to the Illinois Human Rights Act to combat abusive "English-only" rules in the workplace.

Illinois passed legislation to crack down on abusive and unsafe working conditions in the day labor industry, improving the lives of 300,000 day laborers in the state.

The state also passed legislation to bring all state workers under federal anti-discrimination laws, voluntarily waiving the state's "sovereign immunity" to counteract bad Supreme Court "states rights" decisions.

Protected union rightsby providing unemployment insurance benefits when companies unilaterally lock out workers during a contract dispute.

Blagojevich signed an executive order helping day care workers unionize, leading to unionization and better working conditions for 49,000 child care workers in the state.

The state strengthened its bill protecting prevailing wages for public works.

This is the governor's reelection campaign website:
http://www.rodforillinois.com/

Links to polls which include hypothetical races and approval ratings:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/January%202006/Illinois%20Governor%20January.htm
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=4b7a9e06-3d07-4716-96a4-40a1bc93b5c2

And one sober take on the Democratic race from the Illini Pundit:
http://www.illinipundit.com/2006/01/20/blagojevich-approvaldisapproval/

Survey USA does a monthly tracking poll of the President in each state, and also tracks Senators and Governors. The latest approval/disapproval ratings for Governor Blagojevich are here.

The Governor’s numbers, as Rich Miller has correctly pointed out, usually bottom out during the Winter and Spring, and rebound during the Summer and Fall, when he can tour the state, campaigning and making promises. At least, that was the pattern in 2003 and 2003. For whatever reason (voter fatigue, scandals, media incredulity, or something else), 2005 didn’t follow that pattern. Blagojevich’s approval ratings in January 2006 are a little better than they were in June 2005, but the difference is within the Margin of Error.

Notable, though, is a marked improvement in his approval rating amongst Democrats, perhaps because of AllKids and the fact that the holidays provided a nice distraction from the weekly Blagojevich scandals.

A 62/36 approval/disapproval rating among Democrats would be bad news for the Governor if it were October 2006. But it’s January, and he’s facing a single unknown Primary opponent, who is somehow going to have to convince a large portion of that 62 percent of Democrats that he can do a better job that someone they already like. I understand that the Eisendrath campaign is touting their internal polling as showing a much different picture of the electorate, but Survey USA is widely respected and these latest numbers indicate just how difficult it will be to beat Blagojevich in March.

• Republican Candidates

From my point of view, not much here. The way I see it, we have three right-wing nut-jobs and one who might be reasonable. But the reasonable one has been rather silent on important issues such as reproductive rights, and I note that she does not address this on her website. So, unless something major happens between now and November, I'll vote for the winner of the Democratic primary.

Here is a discussion of the Republican situation:
http://capitalfax.blogspot.com/2006/02/governors-race-heats-up.html

But here are the Republican candidates:

Judy Barr-Topinka (currently the State Treasurer)

http://www.judyforgov.com/

Her "issues" page (note how she ducks the issues that Eisendrath takes head on)
https://www.1888932-2946.ws/judyforgov/e-documentmanager/displaycontent.asp

I am not thrilled about her, but if somehow no Democrat made it through to the general election, I'd crawl through 50K of cactus on my knees to vote for her over these remaining wackos:

Jim Oberweis (currently running second among the Republicans; he owns a milk company which has a good repuation and practices recycling. But go to his website and check out his mailers; he is anti-choice and anti-stem cell research). No political experience.

http://www.oberweisforillinois.com/

Ron Gidwitz: CEO of a business. Basically against most of what I hold dear. No political experience.

http://www.ron2006.com/

http://www.ron2006.com/issues/

Lastly, a State Senator who is running a distant fourth among the Republican candidates.
Bill Brady is from Bloominton, Illinois (45 miles away) and is a right wing nut-job.

http://www.bradyforgovernor2006.com/

Why I call him a right-wing nut job: (and he was bragging about this on his website!)

By Christi Parsons and Ray Long, Tribune staff reporters.
Tribune staff reporter Carlos Sadovi contributed to this report
Published February 12, 2006

During a talk radio show early in his campaign for governor, state Sen. Bill Brady was so provocative on the topic of religion in the public schools that the show's host called him back for more.

The Downstate Republican didn't mince words.

School boards should be able to order science teachers to teach creationism as an alternative to the theory of evolution, he said. He had no objection if classroom prayers referred to Christian doctrine. In fact, he said, greater religious influence would be good for schools.

"Godly school prayer is important" to offer to students, Brady told talk show host Jim Leach of Springfield's WMAY-AM. "Bringing God into the classroom through the principles of the Founding Fathers' design is a good thing."

The rhetoric wasn't all that surprising, coming from a candidate who had recently opened a news conference in central Illinois with a prayer.

But word of his comments spread quickly through larger political circles, introducing Brady to a wider audience as an unapologetic social conservative with politics heavily influenced by his religious roots.

Combined with his pro-business voting record, that personal dogma could help Brady overcome his relative shortage of campaign cash. He is vying to win the hearts of the state's most conservative leaders and their statewide grass-roots networks--and hoping they will help spread his name beyond his Downstate environs.

Finally, a Chicago Tribune article which states the current state of the governor's race:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chicago/chi-0510300398oct30,1,3180153.story?ctrack=1&cset=true

Dark cloud hovers over Blagojevich
Federal investigation into hiring blunts governor's reformer image

By Rick Pearson, Tribune political reporter. Tribune staff reporter John Chase contributed to this report
Published October 30, 2005

Gov. Rod Blagojevich had been looking forward to promoting a high-profile political victory for his populist plan for child health insurance, but a burgeoning federal probe into his administration's hiring has cast a new cloud over a governor who promised to clean up Springfield.

Even before federal subpoenas were delivered to Blagojevich's office and the Illinois Department of Transportation last week, the Democratic governor was facing what polls showed to be a public skeptical of whether he deserved re-election or had fulfilled his campaign vows of "reform and renewal."

The federal grand jury probe of state hiring, first revealed by the Tribune, adds to the difficult challenge confronting the first-term Blagojevich, who has found his administration subjected to federal and state investigations into allegations ranging from pay-to-play politics to potential political kickbacks involving his appointees.

Blagojevich maintained he was not thrown off stride by the subpoenas on hiring, which took media attention from what had been his administration's all-out public relations push for All Kids, the governor's state-subsidized health insurance proposal for children.

Passage of All Kids could mean "maybe, the most successful week we've had in state government," Blagojevich said before Democrats, who control the legislature, speedily approved the plan last week.

But even as administration officials spread the word this weekend of All Kids' passage, there were more signs the federal investigation was widening.

Blagojevich's child-welfare department late last week received a third federal subpoena, a spokeswoman for the agency said. A state government source who has reviewed the document said it requested all computers and computer files, including e-mails, hard drives and memory cards, used since March 2002 by eight current or former employees involved with hiring at the Department of Children and Family Services.

Although administration officials downplayed the newest subpoena as asking for similar information but in a different form, the request targets those involved in hiring at DCFS rather than those who were considered for or ended up getting jobs with the agency.

Moving to downplay the potential impact of a federal investigation only weeks before his expected formal re-election announcement, Blagojevich said he expected the probe to help vindicate his 2002 campaign reform pledge of no more business as usual in Springfield. He noted that all levels of government--from federal to the City of Chicago--are under more scrutiny from law enforcement.

"This kind of examination isn't a bad thing if you're confident that your systems are working and that you know that you try to do things honestly, ethically and responsibly," he said.

In a state where Republican governors controlled state government jobs for more than a quarter of a century, there was no shortage of curiosity about how the election of a Democrat would affect hiring. Any changes would have to be played out under the rules of a 1990 U.S. Supreme Court decision aimed at keeping political influence out of the hiring process for most state jobs.

Power of jobs `builds parties'

But several months before Blagojevich even won the March 2002 primary, his father-in-law and then-political ally, Chicago Ald. Richard Mell (33rd), made an appearance before Downstate Democratic county chairmen in Springfield to tell them how helpful his then-unknown son-in-law could be when it came to jobs.

Blagojevich is "a firm believer that, if the opportunity is there for a Democrat to have an opportunity to serve in state government, and he can do the job, (and) he's equal to the Republican, why shouldn't it be the Democrat? I mean, Republicans have done that for, I don't know, 20, 26 years," The State Journal-Register of Springfield quoted Mell as saying. Further, it quoted Mell as saying that the power of jobs "is what builds parties. It'll help you with your fundraising. It'll help you build an organization."

Little more than 3 1/2 years later, Blagojevich and Mell became embroiled in a bitter personal dispute. In January, the Northwest Side alderman accused the administration of trading appointments to boards and commissions for campaign contributions. Mell later recanted the allegation under the threat of a lawsuit by a top Blagojevich fundraiser, Christopher Kelly. But Mell's allegations led to an ongoing state investigation.

That investigation, along with others involving state agencies, has taken a toll on Blagojevich, according to polls that find his job-approval rating and the percentage of voters who want to see him win a second term far below the traditional 50 percent threshold incumbents want to have.

"His poll numbers are very bad, but they're not fatal at this point," said Kent Redfield, a political science professor at the University of Illinois at Springfield. "But if you set yourself up with reform and renewal, and a new way of doing business, you set that up as a criterion, and it's an absolute standard people are going to use to judge you against," he said. "If you can't meet that basic level of character, if you can't be trusted on [reform], then how can voters trust you on any other initiative?"

Redfield said that while Chicago Mayor Richard Daley has used the damage-control option of "throwing everybody overboard and bringing in the white hats" to deal with scandals at City Hall, Blagojevich has chosen a strategy of defend-and-divert to promote initiatives such as All Kids.

"They wanted to change the subject with All Kids," Redfield said. "That would have been fine six months ago, but I don't think it's an adequate strategy now, and at some point they are going to have to engage in some serious damage control."

Bipartisan suspicion

A recent Tribune/WGN-TV poll found that voters believe neither party has cornered the market on corruption or reform. The poll, conducted this month prior to the federal subpoenas, found 67 percent of the voters believe both political parties are the most to blame for corruption, and half of them believe it doesn't make any difference which party is elected when it comes to cleaning it up.

Another factor that mitigates against Blagojevich's low standing in the polls is the uncertainty of whether the GOP can nominate a credible challenger in the March 21 primary election. There are at least six announced or potential contenders.

The Illinois GOP, struggling to find leadership and a guiding ideology, is promoting itself as anti-corruption, yet it still suffers from the scandalous image that shadowed George Ryan's tenure as governor.

State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka, viewed by the party's long-controlling moderate wing as a top prospective candidate for governor after former Gov. Jim Edgar bowed out, has spent weeks trying to decide whether she can get enough national Republican money and help to compete against Blagojevich if she survives a primary that is expected to be brutal.

That decision, she said, has become more difficult with each day's newspaper headlines about the Blagojevich administration.

"If people don't tell you outright, you can tell by the look in their eyes that there's this cynicism. They don't trust anybody," Topinka said.